There have been a lot of developments in the current UFC light heavyweight division. A title fight has been lined up between dominant champion Jon Jones and undefeated number one contender Dominick Reyes for February. Three former high profile middleweights –Luke Rockhold, Chris Weidman, and Jacare Souza– jumped up into the division and took losses. And as always, exciting contenders are forever on the rise.
Despite being 12-0 and on a six-fight win streak in the UFC, it’s hard to imagine Reyes can knock off the current champ. Jones is longer, a better wrestler, the more creative striker (with spinning elbows, oblique kicks, teep kicks, & and a good mix of body punches), and is known for his good use of hard, energy-draining body kicks over the five rounds. Plus, Jon has the advantage in championship fight experience.
Now I’m not saying Jones is unbeatable. I had Alexander Gustafsson winning in their first bout and his last opponent, Thiago Santos, is the only man to be officially awarded a victory over the champ by one of the threes judges. So the long-time light heavyweight king can be dethroned.
The issue is Daniel Cormier lost to Jones and he’s a world-class, lifelong wrestler. Reyes isn’t that. Santos lost as well and he’s a lifelong striker. Again, Reyes isn’t that.
Sure Dominick is big, young, strong, and good at everything, but not really great at anything. Incidentally, I thought he lost to Volkan Oezdimer by being outstruck and taken down multiple times. But Oezdemir slipped and fell in rounds one and two and I think the judges mistakenly awarded those as knockdowns to Reyes, which they were not.
What Reyes really has going for him along with his size and natural athleticism is accurate striking. Look at the hammer fist that ended Chris Weidman, the uppercut that KO’d Jared Cannonier, and the left straight that stopped Ovince Saint Preux. All perfect precise strikes, thrown with knockout power.
Another idea that has emerged in Reyes’ favor is the notion that he’s the only guy Jon Jones has ever faced who is significantly younger than him. I guess the notion stems from the fact that Gustafsson and Anthony Smith both went the distance with Jones and gave him some issues. However, Gus is only several months younger, while Smith is Jon’s junior by little more than a year.
Dominick Reyes feels like the first guy Jon has faced that’s from a distinctly different generation of fighters. But even so, at 29 to Jones’ 32, it’s a realistically marginal gap in age at best. Those additional years also come with valuable experience for Jones, who has double (26-12) the total career fights as his challenger.
I expect Jon Jones to win at UFC 246 and retain his title. Of course, when someone has been the champ at so many different times through 10 years, you can’t really bet against him. The time will again come, but it doesn’t seem to be here yet, leaving the path of the division all still through him.
Elsewhere, Corey Anderson is on a four-fight win streak, calling out Jones at every turn. The two have bad blood dating back to UFC 232. Trace amounts of Turinabol found in Jon’s test sample forced the event to be changed from Las Vegas, Nevada to Inglewood, California.
Anderson took exception to the events and has been vocal on his tail since the TKO defeat back in December 2018. Corey certainly makes for a good opponent, being a long, powerful wrestler. He even showcased his striking power recently by knocking out flashy prospect Johnny Walker in the first round at UFC 244. Unfortunately, as Jones has even mentioned, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Anderson was KO’d by both Jimi Manuwa and OSP just a couple years prior.
Former title challenger Anthony Smith has expressed interest in a fight with Corey, which might just be the bump Anderson needs to finally get that championship shot. Anderson, being the better wrestler and with much-improved striking, would probably win that fight should it ever happen.
Polish-born Jan Blachowicz has also been vocal about deserving a title shot, having won five-of-six; this includes victories over Jimi Manuwa and Jared Cannonier. But I doubt he’ll get it. His last loss, three fights ago, was to recent title challenger Thiago Santos, who remains out due to a knee injury.
Blachowicz recently defeated former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold in the first round. Add to that a lackluster victory over Jacare Souza, and neither win realistically helps his chances of facing Jones. Jan might be looking to wait for an opponent who could be a title eliminator, with the winner getting a shot at light heavyweight gold.
The other rising contender to look out for is the relative newcomer Aleksander Rakic. The six-foot-five Austrian former professional kickboxer is 4-0 in the UFC and recently KO’d Jimi Manuwa with a beautiful first round head kick in Sweden. Owning a 12-1 record overall, he’s scheduled to face former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir on December 21. Beating Oezdemir is what helped propel Reyes right into title contention. It could very well do the same for Rakic. Both great strikers, Rakic has the better technique, Oedzemir has superior power and more experience. Still, Aleksander would be my pick to win due to length, speed, and athleticism.
While I don’t think Rakic is quite ready for a title fight, one of the reasons so many fans and analysts were high on Johnny Walker potentially beating Jon Jones in the future is that the lanky Brazilian had both creative strikes and was one of the few in the division with a height advantage over the champ. Well, Aleksandar is a far superior striker to Walker, plus just as tall.
Once thought to be a depleted division, with few opponents left for Jon Jones. It seems the future at light heavyweight is shaping up rather nicely. Given that Rakic beats Oezdemir, as I suspect he will, a matchup with Blachowicz could be next. And if Corey Anderson can get past Anthony Smith, we’d wind up with two top contenders on long streaks vying for a chance at the winner of Jones and Reyes.
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