I don’t generally make fight predictions, just because what I like about the sport of MMA is the unpredictable nature of it. Anyone can beat anyone on a given night. And the best fights are the ones where it’s the most difficult to tell who will be victorious. But sometimes one must deviate from the established path, and as such, I’ll go ahead and predict that 170-pound champ Kamaru Usman will defeat the Colby Covington at UFC 245.
The two fighters are incredibly similar, both with 10 victories in the UFC and both skilled wrestlers that like to pressure their opponents. Usman is 15-1, as is Covington, each holding the same professional record. The general consensus about this fight is that the wrestling will cancel itself out.
Thus it may well become a striking match. “The Nigerian Nightmare” throws less often but has more power. Covington has less power but throws more strikes, swarming his opponents with a constant barrage of one-two combinations. Covington loves to pressure, and Usman has had some troubles with fighters moving forward on him.
So if Covington fires nonstop for five rounds, as he did against Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos, he’ll most likely win a unanimous decision and be crowned the new champion.
Now that makes sense. Arguably it’s what’s best for the division moving forward. Covington’s persona, his shtick if you will, only works if he’s winning. If he loses, it all falls apart.
Another interesting side story involves Colby’s issues with fellow welterweight contender Jorge Masvidal; two former friends and former training partners who are now rivals. That would certainly make for a compelling future bout.
Masvidal just won the BMF title at MSG in front of a huge audience with great PPV numbers and is on a three-fight win streak, including scoring the fastest knockout in UFC history against a then-undefeated Ben Askren. He too represents an intriguing possible road bump to the division crown next.
Elsewhere, Leon Edwards is on an impressive nine-fight win streak, his only loss, unfortunately, being to Usman. So long as Kamaru remains the champ, it will be harder for Edwards to get a crack at the title. Generally, people don’t like to see champions face fighters they’ve already beaten.
If Colby Covington wins, the brash trash-talking in your face character continues, the fight with Masvidal gets lined up, and Leon Edwards is the number one contender waiting in the wings, free from a rematch with Usman.
Covington winning makes sense and works for everyone in the division. And while I love the fact that he’s has had a great run, beautifully mixing strikes with effective takedowns, especially a powerful double leg, and never slows down or backs-up. The truth is, he’s done it almost exclusively against strikers.
Therefore, I think Usman is going to spoil the party and be successful in defending his title. We’ve already seen Usman beat a top wrestler, which I have yet to see from Colby.
Usman has relied more exclusively on his wrestling to secure his victories. Take his last fight against Tyron Woodley, who was thought to be the superior wrestler and striker with more experience as well. Yet the fight went 25 straight minutes of pure dominance from Usman in both departments.
Usman convincingly proved people’s perceptions of him wrong. So maybe we need to change our minds about what he can and cannot accomplish in the octagon. He was the season 28 Ultimate Fighter winner, undefeated in the UFC, and the current welterweight champion. Yet somehow he still seems like the underdog, and due in part to Covington’s antics, an afterthought in the battle for his own crown.
Well, I’m not falling for it this time. Yes Covington, who’s great, could push the pace and throw more strikes and overwhelm the champ. But I say Usman, with a power and speed advantage, both outwrestle and outstrikes Colby on his way to a victory, thereby retaining his title and screwing up a lot of future big-name bouts.
So while I accept that Kamaru Usman winning at UFC 245 certainly stymies the welterweight division moving forward, it remains my prediction that on December 14 “The Nigerian Nightmare” will add a victory over Covington to his already stellar resume.
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