Conor McGregor has announced he’s officially coming back to MMA. And it will come against Donald Cerrone at UFC 146 on January 18. The man who gave us the “money fight” and had the highest-selling PPV buys ever, is bringing his star power back to the octagon.
While I think it’s a really solid matchup, especially for Conor, some have wondered why is it at 170. Realistically, McGregor is a 155 lber that fought at 145 (featherweight) by depleting himself so much he was practically at death’s door after each weight cut. So Conor McGregor is truly a natural lightweight. He’s even a former champion in the division, having defeated Eddie Alvarez in spectacular fashion. What he has not proven himself with any consistency is a welterweight, having just two fights and a 1-1 record that has lacked the flash much of the rest of his career has held. Most would feel 170 is a stretch to the bounds of his fighting limit.
Likewise, “Cowboy” Cerrone has fought his entire career oscillating between two divisions, 155 and 170. But he’s really more of a lightweight as well, which is where his last four fights have taken place –having gone 2-2.
Therefore, the two of them fighting at 170 just means the aging veterans can forgo dropping the extra pounds prior to weighing in. In essence, sans a weight cut, they’ll both be walking around within a few pounds of each other. Welterweight is just easier for both men. And sets the stage for future bouts.
Conor has stated he wants three fights in 2020 and then a title rematch against Khabib Nurmagomedov (that is, assuming he’s still the champ by then) in early 2021. But first order is winning his return back to the circuit.
My early prediction for that contest is Conor starts strong early, Cerrone takes a while to feel out his opponent. McGregor likes to pressure and then counter. Donald prefers guys who stand and trade with him, throwing power shots. This can be seen in two recent victories versus the likes of Matt Brown and Alexander Hernandez, who was even undefeated at the time.
What Cowboy doesn’t like are rangy strikers that use length, reach, jabs, and kicks; such as Tony Ferguson and Jorge Masvidal, two recent losses. In fact, in Cerrone’s last fight, Justin Gaethje knocked him down by moving out of the way of an overhand right and countering over the top with a hard left. In other words, McGregor’s classic go-to finishing move.
So I feel McGregor wins, by doing what he has always done.
Assuming that holds true, it paves the specific path for McGregor to reach his ideal place to challenge for the belt, but he’ll need further quality fights to solidify his case. There’s no shortage of offerings thanks to coming up to welterweight again.
Nate Diaz 3
The most obvious option is Diaz 3; the much-anticipated trilogy fight with Nate, who won their first bout. Conor won the second clash in a close unanimous decision. At the time, those two cards were each the top-selling UFC PPV events ever. So a third go-around will be a good scrap, will make money, and makes sense for both fighters at this point in their careers.
Plus, this fight makes even more sense if Conor loses to Cerrone. As he fought Diaz at 170 the two times they faced each other. And Diaz just came off of a loss to Masvidal.
So two big-name draws, with large loyal fan bases, could headline an event even with both having just lost. This is really a fight the organization can make at any time, and the fans will happily pay to see it.
Enemy of My Enemy
Jorge Masvidal. The man who just beat Diaz at Madison Square Garden for the BMF title is another likely candidate. Masvidal and McGregor have been chirping back and forth for a while now, drumming up interest.
Each guy wants the bout. And if Conor beats Cowboy, it makes perfect sense, despite Dana White saying Masvidal is too big for McGregor. It may have just been a tactic to light a fire under Conor, who’s always looking for a challenge.
Conor might not be the champ, and honestly doesn’t deserve a shot at the actual title yet, but if he can beat Masvidal, it will make him the new “Baddest Mother Fucker in the Game.” McGregor might be thinking that this bit of clout can be used to secure title contention.
On Masvidal’s side, Jorge has made it clear multiple times that having been a fighter for 17 years, he wants big paydays more so than belts. That’s why he was so up for facing Nate. It’s why he’s up for potentially facing Nick Diaz… if he comes out of retirement. Nick is a man who still has a rabid fan base but won’t be too hard to defeat. Another great payday for Masvidal. Hence why he would want Conor in the first place.
The truth is, and Masvidal knows he’s now a bigger name at welterweight than either Colby Covington or current champion Kamaru Usman. Sure they’re each on huge win streaks and will be competing for the 170 crown in a couple of weeks, but they remain, in a lot of people’s minds, the epitome of boring wrestlers, grinding out slow decision victories.
So Jorge would rather face a guy who has more to offer by way of fame and finances. Like a “money fight” with McGregor.
The Rematch
Khabib Nurmagomedov 2. Conor said three fights in 2020 and then a rematch with Khabib in Russia. What Conor is most likely hoping will happen is he faces Cerrone at 170, beats Diaz at 170 in the trilogy fight, and takes out the BMF titleholder in Masvidal.
That would be three fights, all big-name opponents, all respected veterans, all of which would garner huge numbers. And then Conor could argue he deserves Khabib. Of course, Nurmagomedov, might not still be the champion as he’s facing Tony Ferguson in April.
But assuming Khabib is the champ early next year, and assuming Conor wins those three fights (also that somehow three bouts at 170 allows for a championship fight at lightweight), this fight could happen.
After all, this is Conor McGregor. Somehow beating Nate Diaz at 170 got him a title shot with Eddie Alvarez at 155 a few years ago. So rules rarely apply.
Khabib’s coach and father has expressed the notion of his son retiring at 30-0. Khabib is currently at 28-0 and Tony Ferguson would be number 29. Most then consider Justin Gaethje to be the rightful number one contender; a victory against him would make Khabib 30-0. Again, that’s assuming Khabib holds onto his belt by winning both bouts.
Everyone knows it’s usually unwise to assume perfection in MMA. Therefore, Khabib might just be smart and after 30 fights retire and leave Conor high and dry with no opponent or possible rematch.
Of course McGregor would probably spin that in his favor. Counting it as some sort of moral victory. A feather in his cap for having made Khabib run away or something.
Best of the Rest
A few other possibilities among lighter weight fighters are Frankie Edgar, a rematch with Jose Aldo, and/or a rematch with Max Holloway.
At this point, these guys are too small for Conor. Frankie has moved down to 135, and even though there was some talk of this fight, Dana White quickly shut it down. Recently, Frankie has been slated to replace an injured Brian Ortega against Chang Sung Jung. If he is victorious, he’ll be right in the mix at bantamweight.
A rematch is something Jose Aldo used to be clamoring for after being the unbeatable champ for nine years and losing to Conor in 14 seconds, followed by months of one-sided trash talk by the Irishman. But the fact that Aldo has also gone down to 135 as well means he’s already moved on.
And Max Holloway, the current 145-pound champion soon to face the Australian Alexander Volkanovski. Conor beat Max early in their careers, as each was on the come up. So this rematch is one Conor could have asked for since Holloway won the title. McGregor had his featherweight title stripped. He was never defeated. Holding a victory over the present title holder means he could make a strong case about it still rightfully being his belt.
However, it’s telling that Conor, while having thrown out a few barbs here and there, has never seemed too into it. I just don’t think McGregor wants to kill himself making 145 again. After all, he’s coming back after more than a year away and fighting at 170.
So while all of these fights would make sense. And are fun. They’re not very likely.
Home at Lightweight
There are also three fights at 155 that while interesting, probably will fall through. Finally making that bout with Rafael Dos Anjos, or a Dustin Poirier rematch, and/or Justin Gathje. Considering Conor usually does what helps Conor, these are all unlikely, as they bring big risk and offer little reward.
First the Dos Anjos fight was going to happen when he was the 155-pound champ. Rafael not only no longer is champ, but fights at 170 and has been hit or miss lately. So the plotline has faded. Then again, perhaps Dos Anjos makes a certain level of sense. He’s another natural lightweight fighting at welterweight. There is also some history there. And it’s not too hard of a matchup for McGregor, who could very likely come out victorious.
Beating Rafael is what got fellow trash talker Colby Covington his interim title. The more I think of it, the more Dos Anjos makes sense for McGregor, were it not for the fact that he’s lost three of his last four.
In the case of Poirier, Dustin is coming off of a loss and is a far better fighter now than when the two men first faced off. Conor won’t take on someone who has nothing to offer him, yet is tough opposition. There’s no benefit.
Same for Gathje. Taking out the number one contender would be beneficial. Justin has also called out McGregor multiple times and Conor hasn’t really reacted. It’s a good money fight for Justin and legitimizes his title aspirations, but overall does little for the former champ. Sure McGregor could use a win over Gaethje to fast track himself toward the title. But a bigger name will sell the Irishman’s international brand much faster. And Justin just isn’t well-known enough.
Finally, we arrive at Tony Ferguson. This fight makes sense. Tony competes at 155. The two men have gone back and forth a few times. This could be the bout McGregor is looking for. If Tony wins his title fight with Khabib, it’ll be telling if Conor still pursues that fight. Tony could potentially provide an unexpected platform for the lightweight title.
Remember, Khabib only became a superstar after beating Conor. If Ferguson could beat both men, that would certainly raise his profile and get him those large paydays he’s been vying for. Especially when we consider that Tony is already 35 years old. He only has so many chances left. But with the rise from anonymity will also come a particular calling for the McGregor/Nurmagomedov rematch regardless of it it’s over a belt. Tony may just have to sell his fight harder if that’s the case.
With Conor McGregor having called out fighters for the past three years, and with a multitude of fighters calling out his name during the same time period, he’s got plenty of options upon his return. Plus, he’s still one of the biggest draws in the sport.
Now more than ever, since he’s older and could be slower, even potentially past his prime, more and more fighters are lining up to win the McGregor sweepstakes and line their pockets. Especially when, in the case of veterans nearing retirement like Cerrone, they know they don’t even have to win to get paid.
Just facing Conor McGregor alone makes it a money fight. On January 18, win or lose against the brash Irishman, Cowboy Cerrone will most likely be taking his pot of gold and riding off into the sunset. And we know there are at least 10 other fighters in the UFC who would happily do the same.
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