At the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand, UFC veteran Paul Felder is set to face rising prospect Dan Hooker as the Fight Night 168 main event. This fight is being promoted as two hard-hitting brawlers in the lightweight top 10 looking to break into the top five.
It’s important to understand the type of fight this is supposed to be and what exactly is on the line. This will be the first five-round bout for either man and the first time either has headlined an event. The winner will also be close to title contention; something neither fighter has been thus far in their careers.
The lightweight division appears rather stagnant at the moment. At the top we have Khabib Nurmagomedov set to face Tony Ferguson for the belt in April; both have 12-fight win streaks. So most of the division has lost to the top two guys and the rest want to face Conor McGregor in order to get a big payday. Although that apparently didn’t work out for Donald Cerrone, who was reportedly paid his normal amount to face the Irishman. Plus, other top-ranked fighters, like Islam Makhachev, won’t face their training partner Khabib, who obliviously currently holds the title.
There are few fights and fighters of significance until the top of the division is settled. Sure we have Kevin Lee set to face Charles Oliveira coming up. That’s a really good bout which could affect the future title picture at lightweight. In fact, the winner of this fight might take on the winner of that one.
Felder sits on four professional losses, all of which came in the UFC. Those came to powerful and talented kicker Edson Barbosa, tough veteran Ross Pearson, Brazilian gatekeeper Francisco Trinaldo, and finally Mike Perry. None of those fighters are champions or even the highest level of competition. Yet the closer we look into it, the more we realize every loss is due to circumstance or can be explained.
First of all, Paul recently rematched with Edson and won; thereby avenging said loss. Against Pearson it was a close split decision that could have easily gone the other way. The Trinaldo fight was actually a doctor stoppage. And the bout with Mike Perry took place at welterweight. A prime lightweight Paul Felder has never really lost. Meaning, no one has ever just flat out dominated him in the cage. They were all close, and Felder has learned from and grown after each match.
Examine the losses for Dan Hooker, and things are slightly different. He had four losses coming into the UFC and has four in the organization as well. These are to the oft-injured Maximo Blanco, skilled striker Yair Rodriguez, the always tough but now current Bare Knuckle FC competitor Jason Knight, and most recently also Edson Barbosa. So Hooker’s competition has been more average and the losses much less forgivable.
What’s learned from watching these fights and losses is that Hooker likes to strike up close, more in punching range. Which is odd considering he is tall and long and usually has an advantage in reach over his opponents. But he struggles with top-notch kickers –see the bouts with Barbosa and Rodriguez as prime examples.
With the notion of a couple of tough brawlers going at it and the winner now billed a top-five lightweight, we’re forced to ask can either emanate a title contender?
Felder has already put in motion this conversion. He sought the trilogy fight with Barbosa but only if it could be a five-round main event. He’s been looking for the opportunity to have more time in the octagon, be a headliner, and put himself in a title scenario. He’s thinking about championship rounds and championship fights.
Hooker, on the other hand, is mostly being gifted this chance to headline in New Zealand because he’s on home soil and City Kickboxing gym has recently produced two champions –Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski. But those are reasons why Dan is getting this fight, not why he should win.
In his most recent loss, Hooker was getting destroyed by Barbosa’s kicks, and instead of making any adjustments, he merely tried to tough it out and keep moving forward. Although Felder likes to move forward and stay in close range, which could play right into Hooker’s hand, he has shown a powerful and yet varied kicking arsenal as well. Plus, Paul seemingly has the stronger clinch and better takedowns. Either way, both are difficult to finish.
I think the old Felder would have had a scrap with Dan Hooker. He would have bought into the hype and let circumstances and the fans get to him. And it would have been an all-out brawl. One of those let’s just bleed and see who can take the pain better, type of matches. But Felder has matured and gotten a little smarter as of late and seems more like a viable contender, someone who is legitimately one or two big wins away from a title shot.
So I’m picking Paul Felder to fight smart, stick and move, use kicks, outstrike his opponent, and get his third win in a row… most likely via decision.
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