“The thing about me is is that I’m not afraid of him.” These words, or variations of them, have been repeated over and over again by this weekend’s light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith, as well as just about every underdog ever in the history of sports. This includes pretty much all of his opponent’s, Jon Jones, previous victims. It’s refreshing to hear him speak with confidence, ready to bring war into the octagon, but many believe his self-belief isn’t a relevant factor.
Still, no one is going to beat Jones with a different attitude. Every fighter who steps into the cage needs to say what he’s saying. And more importantly, they need to believe it, they don’t need to convince us. Our opinions don’t matter come fight night. Smith can’t just pass up on the opportunity of a lifetime to fight Jones simply because the man is on another level, and he can’t go into the fight with any mentality other than the one he has. He needs to go in with that Nebraskan toughness and try to beat the brakes off of the man many consider the GOAT (if not for his history with steroids).
But like most of Jon Jones’ opponents, almost nobody is giving Smith any chance in hell. Despite destroying two legends in a row and then submitting number two contender Volkan Oezdemir in a grinding war, fans aren’t really noticing much from the long-time veteran that would suggest he poses much of a threat.
However, as Matt Serra once taught us against Georges St Pierre, and as many athletes from every sport have taught us, freak upsets do happen. Can Smith be the one to pull it off and hand “Bones” his first legitimate career loss?
With a record of 31-13 Smith is walking in as one of if not the most experienced opponents Jon Jones has faced. This narrative has been pushed by media outlets trying to hype the fight up, but all fail to mention a crucial fact about his record. Smith hasn’t been spending time in the cage with top fighters with notable frequency.
Most of his fights took place in regional promotions. Half of his opponents don’t even have pages on Wikipedia. Only two of his opponents, Mauricio Rua (“Shogun”) and Volkan Oezdemir, were in the top 10 at the time that he fought them. Not to mention he spent much of his career fighting smaller opponents at middleweight. This includes going 1-1 against Josh Neer. While Neer was a fan favorite back in the day, has fought as low as lightweight.
The fact is that despite all his experience, he has not come up against anyone like Jones. They always say about veterans, “he’s seen it all.” Well, the blunt truth is no he hasn’t. Shogun has been deteriorating for years and Volkan skyrocketed through the rankings pretty recently without facing many tests himself. Volkan has ridiculous power that some of his opponents simply underestimated, but lately, he has shown many holes in his game that have been exploited.
Jones, on the other hand, has been fighting almost exclusively top 10 competition for his past dozen or so fights. And rarely has he been challenged. Only two men were really able to give him tough fights, and he destroyed both in the rematch.
Those men are of course double champ Daniel Cormier and his latest victim Alexander Gustafsson. Smith couldn’t be further stylistically from Cormier, the short and powerful wrestler, but Jones’ first fight with Gustafsson showed us vulnerabilities Smith might be able to capitalize on.
It was Gus’ range that caused Jones trouble. While Gus is rangier with a 79-inch reach compared to Smith’s 76, Smith is still longer than any other of Jones’ opponents.
We saw Jon stay on the outside against Gus this past December with his 84-inch reach, but the weakness could still potentially exist. Gus and Smith don’t move the same, maybe Smith could give Jones different reads and capitalize. It’s unlikely but it’s not impossible.
This could result in a very boring fight from Jones jabbing and kicking on the outside or result in Jones having to close the distance to capitalize, and that’s where Smith actually fights at his best. The long-time MMA veteran is a savage in close range, capable of finishing opponents with vicious elbows. And once he hurts you, he swarms better than most. Jones is phenomenal in the clinch, but all it takes is one, and with Smith showing even more power at 205, it’s likely Jones will have to keep the fight at a distance or employ a heavy grappling attack.
Smith wants to go technique for technique, but that’s not where his bread and butter is. He may not pack the punch of a Quinton “Rampage” Jackson or the range techniques of Gustafsson, but he is somewhere in between. And maybe, just maybe, that mixture of power and range could be the recipe for Jones’ downfall.
As of right now, Jon Jones hasn’t failed any of his drug tests (at least in a way the commission disapproves of) so this fight is still on. But for those worried about his controversies and history of ruining cards have nothing to worry about. UFC 235 is stacked from top to bottom with electrifying action.
Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley is set to defend his title against Kamaru Usman in the co-main event. Bellator and One FC champion Ben Askren is scheduled to make his long-awaited debut against former UFC champ Robbie Lawler. Rising star Johnny Walker recently signed to step up against Misha Cirkunov, and former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt is set to take on Pedro Munhoz. The list goes on with over half the fights easily capable of headlining an ESPN+ fight card. We haven’t seen a card this stacked outside of international fight week or a Madison Square Garden card since…. well ever.
So if you’re turned off by the lack of competitiveness that fans and media have cursed the headlining bout with there is no need to worry. Some of the best fights of the year are likely to take place on this card. So you can sit back and watch high stakes action all night long. And then at that point, there’s no worry sticking around to the end. Sure Jones will probably figure out Smith’s patterns early and run right through him, but there’s always a chance that history can be made.
This sport is truly unpredictable, and no fan of MMA would want to miss potentially the biggest upset of all time.
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