We’re now only two weeks out from a highly-anticipated UFC 246. On January 18, in Las Vegas, Nevada, Conor McGregor will make his return against Donald Cerrone after more than a year away from the sport.
The last time Conor fought, he faced and lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight crown in October 2018. Prior to that, Conor’s previous UFC fight –before a brief layover to fight Floyd Mayweather in 2017– was in 2016, where he defeated Eddie Alvarez for the title at 155 pounds.
Here is a man whose entire UFC run went from April 2013 to November 2016. He has fought just once in the current landscape of the UFC and lost.
From a totally stylistic standpoint, McGregor should win against “Cowboy.” He’s younger with a slight reach advantage and he’s had the more successful career. Cowboy is a slow starter that doesn’t do well against pressure. Conor is a quick starter who likes to pressure. It should be a McGregor victory.
The issue is what Conor McGregor will show up.
We know what to expect from Cerrone. He fought four times is 2019, which he split, going 2-2. He went 2-2 in the four bouts before that, stretching back to 2017. Donald even went 2-2 in the previous four before that.
So here is a tough fighter, who will take on all comers, but has been rather consistent in the not so great way for the past four years or so. Part of that stems from his quick turnarounds and Cowboy loving to stay active.
Donald is the classic tough opponent who can give anyone trouble on a given night but is likely to lose against top competition. He’s a gatekeeper. And I don’t mean that as an insult. If you beat Cerrone you’re potentially a title contender. If you lose, you’re probably not good enough or not ready just yet.
Here’s a list of guys who have beaten Cerrone: Justin Gaethje, Tony Ferguson, Leon Edwards, Darren Till, Robbie Lawlor, Jorge Masvidal, Rafael Dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis, and Nate Diaz. All top guys who are either former champions or contenders.
Here’s a list of guys Cerrone has defeated lately: Al Iaquinta, Alexander Hernandez, Mike Perry, Yancy Medeiros, Matt Brown, and Rick Story. All fighters who are good but not great.
In fact, his best wins came when he won eight in a row and competed for the title back it 2015. During this run, he bested the likes of former champ Benson Henderson, Eddie Alvarez (before he captured the title), and a prime Edson Barbosa (who is currently on a losing streak and set to drop down in weight).
So Conor beating Cowboy would show he’s on a certain level and arguably in title contention at lightweight. Even though the bout is at welterweight. Dana White has even said he considered the contest to be a 155 fight, without either competitor having to cut.
Related: Is Conor McGregor Really One Win Away From A Title Shot?
While I disagree that it should warrant a rematch with Nurmagomedov, who has discussed possible retirement after he faces off with Tony Ferguson, Khabib vs Conor 2 would be a huge moneymaker… and it seems the UFC is running out of time to make it happen.
There’s the narrative being pushed, by guys like analyst and former fighter Chael Sonnen, that Donald has more ways to win. Which is true. He’s a better wrestler and grappler than Conor. So while I agree with the point, I disagree with the premise that the number of ways of winning increases the likelihood of winning. In fact, I’d usually go for the specialist over the well-rounded fighter most times.
A world-class wrestler like Khabib has beaten everyone he’s faced, despite bad striking. Israel Adesanya has limited grappling but amazing striking. Yet, both are champions. So the well-rounded argument should have little influence on the bout itself.
The main point is, we know what to expect from Donald Cerrone –a tough but inconsistent veteran who tends be beat lesser competition. What we don’t know is who is Conor in 2020? Having been away from the game for a while, it’s hard to really tell. Sure, prime Conor should win. He was a world-beater that no one would dare bet against. But that was close to four years ago.
Most armchair psychologists have said McGregor is more focused on his whiskey brand and fame than on fighting. Maybe that was true against Khabib. But supposedly he’s reenergized and hyperfocused once again.
Yet, we can’t help but question him mentally when he’s constantly sending out tweets about ever other fighter under the sun. McGregor seems overly focused on Stephen Thompson’s joke belt, the NMF (nicest mofo in the game); Jorge Masvidal and his BMF title and possibly facing him next; and constantly bringing up Khabib.
Also, we all know Cowboy reacts poorly to trash talk. And despite that being what Conor is known for, he hasn’t really done much to get in his opponent’s head. Maybe that suggests something about McGregor’s mindset going into this fight.
From a biomechanical standpoint, Conor has always had a unique physique. He has stubby legs and a short torso but has large hands, long arms, and broad shoulders. This helps for his one-punch knockout power. And he has a disproportionately large head. This seems to help for taking a punch. Conor doesn’t get enough credit for having a great chin, with an abnormal ability to take shots.
An in his prime, in shape Conor, had abs. That’s a clear sign that he has the stamina and conditioning to go with his power. During the weigh-ins with Khabib, he looked like a typical weekend gym bro: big arms and no abs.
Recently, Conor has posted photos online of his “170 body,” which displayed enlarged arms and shoulders. Not necessarily a good sign. But his coach, John Kavanagh, says he’s in the best shape of his life.
McGregor recently went 14 rounds in a boxing exhibition match. Despite what I just said about conditioning, this is potentially a bad sign too. Boxing is a marathon. MMA is a sprint. Especially Conor’s style of waiting, darting in and out, lining up his sights, and then throwing haymakers with full force. It’s the reason he’s had so much success early in fights and tends to gas out later on.
Conversely, going 14 rounds means you’re not throwing with much force but tempering your punches, throwing combinations, and using footwork and movement. If Conor has changed his striking style, it’s hard to know what to expect from him.
Honestly, I don’t even agree with this narrative that Conor is a tremendous boxer. He isn’t. A big factor for his victories has always been kicks, especially leg and body kicks. If you go back and watch all of his early fights, his side kicks, calf kicks, front teep kicks, and even creative spinning roundhouse kicks helped force the overreactions that helped lead to finishes.
Body and leg kicks slowed down his opponents’ movements while racking up points for damage. As they were worried about being hit with legs, that opened their guard up for punches. Much like Khabib being a great wrestler, the fear of being taken down is what opens you up to striking. That is how Nurmagomedov knocked Conor down in their title fight, despite McGregor obviously being a better striker.
In McGregor’s two recent losses against Nate Diaz the first time and Khabib, he didn’t throw many kicks. Against Nate, it seemed he deviated from the plan and got dragged into a boxing match. But he went back to his varied kicking game is their second bout and, lo and behold, won. And against Khabib, the fear of being taken down made Conor leery of throwing something for Nurmagomedov to grab onto.
At UFC 246, a McGregor win means he’s back and potentially still a contender; which would certainly excite the MMA world. A loss would signify that’s he’s average, past his prime, and his name value is worth more than his actual current abilities.
If an in-shape Conor shows up –whose head is in the game– and he sticks to his old style of good distance management with pressure, a complex leg kick based attack, and straight power punches with counters, he should beat Donald Cerrone.
Of course, after all these years, who knows for sure if that guy even exists anymore.
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