It’s been over two months since the undefeated 18-0 (7-0 in the UFC) Israel Adesanya became the new champ at 185 lbs by convincingly dispatching former middleweight king Robert Whittaker in the second round. But it’s not clear where the champ will go from here, as the UFC has yet to announce a new challenger.
The next in line seemed to be Paulo Costa, the undefeated 13-0 young contender. Costa is 5-0 in the UFC after recently knocking off tough veteran Yoel Romero, a former title challenger and perennial contender, in a razor-thin decision.
Even excluding the years of trash talking that has gone on between Costa and the new champ, Paulo’s path to the title is clear. After beating some no names and getting on the Ultimate Fighter: Brazil with coaches Chael Sonnen and Wanderlei Silva –a tournament he went far in but didn’t win– he’s trending in the right direction.
Costa’s first major victory came against Johnny Hendricks, a former champ on a losing streak with one foot out the door. Later, he went on to get a win against crafty but inconsistent veteran Uriah Hall. Then took out the aforementioned athletic Cuban mass monster Yoel Romero.
So Paulo is the guy to rightfully fight for the middleweight crown. Unfortunately, Costa got injured with a bicep tear. So for the foreseeable future, he is out.
“The Last Stylebender” took it upon himself to drum up interest for his first title defense by calling out Romero. Which makes little sense.
Thankfully, Dana White has dismissed this as a possible title match. Good. While I’m a big Yoel fan and he’s a tough fight for anyone with his one-punch knockout power and great wrestling, he doesn’t deserve a shot at gold.
Some worry that now in his 40s, Romero is moving past his prime. Having lost three of four and on a two-fight losing streak, it’s a match the UFC can’t sell to the fans. Even if some still feel Yoel defeated Robert Whittaker in their title bout and bested Paulo Costa in their match as well, based on his record, he doesn’t deserve a title shot.
So Adesanya still doesn’t have an opponent. And as far as facing light-heavyweight champ Jon Jones in 2021 goes, it’s been fun banter back and forth, but realistically, neither man may still be champ by then. And Israel is a skinny middleweight while Jones is big light-heavyweight. Sure, Adesanya vs Jones sounds like fun. And while I enjoy Israel getting under Jon’s skin, it’s probably not going to happen.
Instead, the rightful new oppoent should be Jared Cannonier. The surging former heavyweight is currently on a three-fight win streak, each by knockout. With powerful leg kicks and hard body shots, Cannonier is a mix of one-punch KO power, experience, technique, and enough patience to not force the action.
Similar large power strikers like say Jairzinho Rozenstruik doesn’t have the same level of MMA experience. Francis Ngannou doesn’t have the technique. And Anthony Johnson, who similarly spent years struggling to find his rightful weight class, didn’t have the patience. Cannonier is one of a kind.
There has been some talk that Israel is the new Anderson Silva. While there are similarities physically –both are tall, long strikers at middleweight– but the key comparative is how they beat their opponents and how opponents could beat them.
The major mistake Anderson’s opposition usually made were headhunting and rushing in; thereby allowing him to use length and footwork to counter. But in the case of guys like Michael Bisping, Chris Weidman, and even Adesanya himself, they were patient, attacked the body and legs, and threw both feints and combinations.
Against Adesanya, Whittaker had a horrible game plan. He rushed in, went for one-punch strikes, and attacked straight for the head against a much taller and longer opponent known for his footwork and ability to lean back away from danger.
And that’s just what the new champion did. Israel beautifully used movement and counters to knock Whittaker out. So Robert once again showed the way to lose to Adesanya is the same way opponents have historically lost to Silva.
So who in the middleweight division can do to Adesanya what few opponents have successfully done to Anderson?
Since Cannonier and Adesanya both faced Silva, it’s a strong comparison and a good place to start. Israel even said going into their bout that Anderson was an inspiration to him and he wanted to be the one to respectfully end his career, hoping it would be a retirement bout for the legend.
Well, one guy went three rounds in a strategic back-and-forth while the other did end Silva’s career with one hard leg kick. However, it was Cannonier, not Israel. And Jared did so with hard body shots and a leg kick that blew out Silva’s knee.
Therefore, the person who is best equipped to do to Israel what was done to Silva is Cannonier. Adesanya has even admitted Jared would be his toughest opponent but stated he would rather wait. And while perhaps that makes sense for the champ, it doesn’t make sense for the promotion.
Elsewhere in the division, former welterweight title contender Darren Till moved up and made a big splash by knocking off Kelvin Gastelum. Adesanya’s toughest test so far has been Gastelum, as the pair went for five hard rounds battling it out for the interim title earlier this year.
Till is a good striker, a known fighter, and has a big victory over a worthy challenger in this new division. But he seems to still be one fight away. Till versus Robert Whittaker in England was agreed on by both parties. Reportedly though, the UFC is trying to book Till versus Jack Hermansson and Jared Cannonier against Whittaker.
Personally, I’d prefer Cannonier fights for the title as Costa heals up. And Till, who won against Gastelum, should keep moving up the ladder against Whittaker. It doesn’t make any sense for Till to take on a guy like Hermansson, who is coming off of a loss (to Cannonier). Unless Whittaker, who just lost the title, has the clout of being a former champion.
A victory over Till won’t get Whittaker a rematch with Israel, but getting two high profile victories against fighters at the top of the division and one being the former champion should get Till that second title shot; this time at middleweight.
Elsewhere in the top 10, Uriah Hall and Derrick Brunson are also quietly each on two-fight winning streaks. But Hall has already lost to Costa and Brunson was KO’d by Adesanya.
Alas, a young undefeated 22-year-old Edmen Shahbazyan is 4-0 in the UFC and working his way into contention. Having just stopped Brad Tavares (making him 11-0 overall), Adesanya even said he’s a young prospect to look out for who will give a lot of opponents problems in the future. But he needs time to keep developing.
Let’s play middleweight matchmaker for a moment.
If Costa is still injured, the Romero fight is rejected, Cannonier gets Whittaker, Gastelum just lost, Shahbazyan isn’t experienced enough yet, and Till faces Hermansson, that pretty much wraps up the division’s top 10. Yet, still leaves the champ without a challenger.
I think Adesanya should face Cannonier. It’s his toughest opponent possible. Till gets Whittaker, and if Darren wins, he’s next in line. Hermansson should face Romero, as both are veterans coming off of a loss. Gastelum, who needs a step down in competition, should face Brunson. And young Shahbazyan should get Uriah Hall, cause that would be a fun fight.
Otherwise, the middleweight belt is basically on hold. But with Israel making the rounds in the media lately, seemingly doing every interview possible, the UFC might just be waiting on purpose. Having their new champion spend these next few months building up his fame internationally all the while waiting for his main rival to heal up seems just strategic enough to give merit to. Then, it’d all but be as they’ve planned for the division’s landscape, and all’s well… until the next cycle of fights.
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