What is the best way to measure a UFC fighter’s position in their division? The official UFC ranking is solid enough indication of the hierarchy, but it simply doesn’t always paint the full picture. Opportunities are not inherently equal in the fight game, and organizationally justified rematches and pecking orders can sometimes muddle the idea of who’s where.
There are basically four types of fighters in the UFC: the champ, contenders (veterans, some of whom are former champions), gatekeepers (guys who are tough but inconsistent), and prospects (good records, but young and still unproven).
Stipe Miocic’s Reign
It’s pretty much accepted that he’s going to face Daniel Cormier in the trilogy fight. Currently, Stipe is recovering from eye surgery (due to pokes) and Cormier has decided to not retire, hoping for that third meeting with Miocic. Personally, I don’t like the fight, it’s unnecessary and holds up the division. But such are the ways these things go.
In their first bout, Cormier poked Stipe in the eyes repeatedly and then knocked him out while he was left standing there a blind sitting duck. The ref should have stepped in and stopped it as a DQ win for Stipe, but we all know they usually don’t (and this fight was no exception).
In the rematch, Cormier tried the same thing until Stipe went to body punches and eventually knocked him out. I think Stipe has proven he is the better fighter in a fair fight and I don’t need Cormier trying to poke his eyes out a third time to prove it. Two men have taken DC down in his career, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Both proved themselves better in clear-cut standards. I think DC should retire, but realistically that third fight will probably happen.
Creme of the Contenders: Francis Ngannou
A former title challenger on a three-fight win streak –three first-round knockouts no less against two former champions– Ngannou would seem like the next man up. Unfortunately for him, Cormier is not retiring, Stipe got surgery, the UFC wants to make that third fight, and the fact that Miocic already defeated Ngannou in dominant fashion, he likely won’t be granted that title fight any time soon, even if he deserves it.
Recently a fight with former Bellator champion Alexander Volkov fell thorough, but they are supposed to reschedule. It’s a good fight, since Ngannou needs something to do as he waits, but Volkov is long and technical, a dangerous matchup for anyone, and it might just derail Ngannou’s title opportunity.
Meanwhile, if Volkov wins, just beating Greg Hardy and Ngannou won’t earn him that title opportunity. Not when just a couple fights ago he was knocked out by an injured Derrick Lewis in a bout he should have won.
So if Ngannou can best him, he’ll be hard to deny a chance at the title.
Walt Harris, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Curtis Blaydes Nearly There
Walt Harris is out indefinitely, dealing with his missing step-daughter, and won’t be facing Alistair Overeem in two weeks. His replacement is Rozentruik, who’s undefeated (3-0) in the UFC and just KO’d a former champ, Andrei Arlovski, in the first round. I’m really big on this fighter. To me, he’s the heavyweight Israel Adesanya, a highly-skilled former kickboxer with an impressive career and crazy knockout power.
Rozenstruik is the power of Ngannou mixed with the skill of Volkov. If he wins, beating Overeem in an impressive fashion, he should get the winner of those two as a title eliminator. I’d really love to see Ngannou and Rozenstruik go at it. But if Overeem wins, he won’t get a title shot, having already lost to Stipe by first-round KO. Perhaps if Cormier beats Stipe and then retires, that could open the door for an old veteran on a three-fight win streak like Overeem to get a title shot. Overeem vs. Ngannou for the vacated heavyweight crown wouldn’t be too shabby.
Curtis Blaydes is on a two-fight win streak and is set to face former champion Junior Dos Santos. A three-fight win streak and a win over a former champ with name recognition would put him right in the mix, but having lost to Ngannou twice already, they won’t remake that bout a third time or give the title shot. So even if he wins, he’ll probably need another victory to pave the road to that chance.
Veterans in the Mix
These guys have been around a while, they may even be former champions that are now sort of hit or miss. Beating them helps a title contender’s case, but losing to this rank of fighters can be damning for career progression paths. Without being insulting, they’re sort of the name recognition gatekeepers.
I’ve already named a few: Volkov, Dos Santos, Overeem, Arlovski. Even throw in a guy like Derrick Lewis –a fan-favorite veteran who went on a run, got his title shot, got destroyed by Cormier, and will now have to do something spectacular to get another chance at the gold.
Derrick Lewis is at the point in his career where his fights usually say more about his opponents than they do about him. Sure Lewis is tough and might derail a young prospect on the come up, but if a young fighter, like say Augusto Sakai, the 13-1-1 Brazilian who is quietly 3-0 in the heavyweight division, just so happened to defeat him, that might make him one or two fights away.
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